There’s never been simple formulas, identifiable patterns or predictable cycles that allow for 100% accuracy in foreseeing the future, but plenty of folks have been feeling like every new year is a little murkier and unknowable than the one before.
Sure, there still are traditional indicators to watch for clues—like general market behaviors and how the experts are hedging their bets with their own cash positions and portfolios, for example—and South Jersey is packed with experienced professionals to turn to for measured, thoughtful advice. But even those experts readily admit that they’re not fortune tellers.
But what they lack in a guaranteed roadmap for maneuvering through the future with minimal bumps and snags, they more than make up for with tools and tips for safeguarding yourself, your business and your finances to best position them all for whatever life has in store for this new year and beyond.
“There’s always risk when we use a crystal ball, but I’ve learned that chance favors those who are prepared,” says Mike Dinneen, First Harvest Credit Union’s CEO and president. “Our credit union has made deep investments in technology, in restructuring our balance sheet, implementing new lending programs, and in training and developing our amazing staff, which well positions us regardless as to whether 2025 remains status quo in the current rate environment, or if we hopefully see more opportunities to grow and expand.”
Hoping for the best and preparing for the worst has similarly been the guiding principle that Stan Molotsky, president and CEO of SHM Financial, has imparted to each and every one of his clients since 1958. It’s advice his firm continues to emphasize as the safest course of action for navigating an especially unclear future while keeping both your finances and mental well-being as intact as possible.
He points to this season’s wintry weather as demonstrably driving home that point: “This is an unusual situation, economy-wise, politically and everything. It’s like the storm we had [recently], where you have to be careful where you drive and be careful where you walk because you don’t know where that black ice is that can knock you right on your rear end. And that’s the perfect analogy as we go into the new president’s term: I think we have to be prepared for the black ice, and we have to be prepared for a multitude of different things, so I think caution is not a bad idea as you enter into 2025.”
Molotsky adds that we’re collectively entering an “interesting time” with the upcoming presidential inauguration, as well as ongoing international factors, signaling an environment best approached with a mix of “being prepared for anything,” embracing more adaptability and flexibility than ever before, proactively seeking second opinions, empowering yourself with enough knowledge to be confident in your situational assessment, knowing your short- and long-term financial goals, and being honest about your appetite for financial risk to find the opportunities present in this environment.
Additionally expected to impact the new year are December’s Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While Dinneen observes that “consumers have not necessarily seen the trickle-down effect in terms of lower mortgage rates, lower credit card rates or a thawing of the housing market,” he expects the effects of that attempt at inflationary control should be felt later in the year by way of decreased borrowing costs.
Those macroeconomic factors, of course, manifest themselves in a variety of ways on a local level, as professionals representing the various industries present in South Jersey know all too well. Longtime commercial and residential real estate agent Anne Koons has also seen how people flocking from Philadelphia and other metropolitan areas to New Jersey in recent years has created a more localized housing bubble, though it is beginning to deflate and will most likely present its own delayed consequences to homeowners.
“I don’t think you’re going to see the house appreciation that you saw in 2024—that was unrealistic,” she notes. “ This is my 38th year and I’ve never seen a market like that: the bidding wars, people waiving approvals, waiving inspections—which aren’t good things to waive. I feel that people that bought houses over the last two or three years, unless they stay in their home for a long time, when they go to sell, they’re going to have to bring money to the table. … That shortage of inventory in Camden County, particularly in Cherry Hill, is because there’s no ground left to build on, so there’s no new construction. So of course the prices of homes that are already existing are going to go up.”
Dinneen has also witnessed how trends both play out and reshape South Jersey’s business landscape. Take, for example, the ways that “in our banking industry, we have to be prepared on multiple fronts.” Whether that means proactively pivoting in accordance with evolving client expectations, adopting the technology that both facilitates ease of use and ramps up cybersecurity measures as new threats emerge, or making sure that the credit union is operating within the legal and regulatory parameters it’s required to, an entity like First Harvest has to keep its finger on the pulse of local financial clients’ behaviors and preferences.
That can also look like responding to a rising demand for what credit unions can offer the region’s residents. As he notes that “there are fewer banks still headquartered in South Jersey due to merger activity in recent years,” that streamlining of brick-and-mortar branches has opened up new opportunities for the likes of local credit unions, which has its own rippling local impact.
“First Harvest had a very successful year in 2024, despite some very strong economic headwinds in our banking sector: We saw annualized growth in overall membership, member loans and member deposits, our Select Employer Group portfolio, as well as year-over year improvements in our asset quality, our member experience scores, employee turnover and net income,” he notes. “This indicates that more and more South Jersey residents are understanding the inherent value in our member-owned credit union and making the decision to join us. … We also contribute significant funds and volunteer hours to dozens of local organizations. We are very proud to operate in, and contribute to, many areas of South Jersey where banks have ceased their operations in recent years.”
Koons does point out that both residential and commercial real estate trends are worth keeping an eye on to get a jump on bigger trends. She notes that more people are leaving New Jersey these days than gravitating to it, thanks in large part to its comparatively higher cost of living than the likes of Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, South Carolina and Tennessee; while Koons anticipates that her industry’s commercial sector will probably have a better year than its residential counterpart due to a combination of factors that include a return to onsite office spaces, downtown areas should expect "somewhat of a resurgence” and demand for mixed-use properties remains promising.
Overall, though, she’s not expecting a banner year from 2025.
“I don’t think you’re going to have a big, robust year,” she begins. “I think that you’ll see it’s going to be kind of flat all the way across the market. But if you can stay flat without decreasing, I think you’re ahead of the game.”
Molotsky advises prioritizing flexibility in your finances as the safety net mitigating the stress of emergency scenarios. While there’s no one-size-fits-all solution for optimally safeguarding your investments and maintaining a cash position reflecting a few months of savings, staying keyed into investment options and opportunities may be the difference between being caught financially flatfooted at an inopportune time or sidestepping a potential snarl with the agility that preparation and wide-open eyes can often afford.
And Molotsky points out that every individual, right on down to married couples, will have a different response, expectation and vision for how they’ll move through 2025, right on down to its financial aspect and the modern influences ceaselessly shaping and reshaping it.
“There are new things constantly coming into the arena, which are fascinating, which are things that will make everything unbelievably great and a little bit cumbersome and a little bit scary down the road,” he says. “When you look at today at the things that are available and the things you can do and the things that you have access to, and then think back—forget five years ago, think back five months ago about how things advance and how they keep advancing. … The options keep growing, which is a terrific thing, and it’s our job to expose the clientele to those different options to see what fits in with what they want to do and how they want to do it.”
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Published (and copyrighted) in South Jersey Biz, Volume 15, Issue 1 (January 2025).
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